The Question

Last week at lunch, an extremely sharp and knowledgeable investment banker challenged us to find the shipping equivalent of the Holy Grail. In this instance it would be the answer to the pressing question that is on everyone’s mind these days – what percentage of the newbuilding orderbook will in fact be delivered? This question can be answered on many levels – theoretically, politically and statistically.

Everyone has their ideas and numbers are bandied about by everyone and cover a full gamut of possibilities. A simple answer, with a high degree of probability, is all of them, another friend

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