Box Market Heading for Bruising, Say Citigroup Analysts

UK-based Citigroup Smith Barney analysts Simon Smith and Roger Elliott issued a bearish beginning of the year report on container shipping titled simply and ominously: “Hangover Starting.” The metaphor seems to be particularly apt and widely used in shipping these days, where even as they revel in phenomenal profits, everybody is aware that at some point the party is going to end and they are going to have to deal with Sunday morning…and worse yet, Monday. Smith and Elliott see that morning coming, and coming soon. In particular, they cite unfavorable early 2005 rate negotiations, no break from WTO-enforced removal of textile quotas, rising cost pressures and an increasingly unfavorable supply demand balance.

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