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Navios Family Investor Day
Four companies represented in 83 slides were on view to a packed room of over 100 investors all interested in hearing the Navios’ story from the management team, which shared the duties. Not only has management got their presentation down to a science, they keep getting better. Clearly, it worked well with the entire presentation completed in just over an hour and with few questions asked at the end.
A comment by Ted Petrone summed up the day for us. “We can’t control the market, but we can control costs and manage risks.” Nor, unfortunately, can they control the share price, much to their dismay, but that should hopefully take care of itself based upon management’s efforts and a hoped for market turn.
Believe the Story or Bet on the Come
Yesterday, Jefferies held its Annual Shipping Conference and, according to Hamish Norton it was a record turnout with over 400 delegates and 40 companies represented. When we were queried about the mood, we hard pressed to provide an answer. There was neither excitement nor was their panic. The closest comparison we could come up with was window shopping. The presentations for the most part were excellent, but the audience appeared detached. Had they seen it all before or was the action taking place behind the scenes in the break outs and one-on-ones? Nonetheless, in line with our thesis, the tanker presentations seemed the most crowded. Genmar, for example, was sold out while the non-U.S. listed companies and service industries garnered the least attention. But then again this was a NY shipping crowd.
The state of the sectors was irrelevant, as all presenters found reason for optimism, well placed or not. Dry has clearly been on the rise, with speakers touting 40% non-deliveries and record scrapping. While on the wet side, consensus suggests 2012 will also be difficult, but the glass is half full with opportunities expected to arise as a result. Lastly, the container ship lessors seem to have blinders on banking on the liners’ liquidity and ability to access capital as losses compound even as they try to get rate increases.
We provide some of our favorite vignettes below.
Pareto and Odin Products Confab
Last week, Pareto Securities and Odin Group hosted a seminar on the product market and the news was generally good. In the introductory presentation on the market, Pareto’s Martin Korsvold, highlighted the “Positive Delta”, the fact that rates are at an historic low levels and upside is likely as market balance recovers. This outlook is supported by:
• A manageable orderbook compared to other shipping sectors
• Demand to outstrip supply going forward
• The larger trend of more oil being refined closer to production areas
• Limited investor knowledge of products compared to crude shipping, thereby creating opportunities
• Oil demand trend gives a bullish backdrop as the oil market has tightened significantly in 2010 driven by strong demand growth, as evidenced by declining inventories.
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No Hype. We Delivered!
Our Chairman’s promotions are sheer artistry and we constantly marvel at these masterful gems. Of course, there are issues with punctuation but why let that get in the way of a great pitch. The amazing thing is that despite his protests otherwise, he really does get it. Our problem is that he is rubbing off on us and we are moving from analytical and objective to the dark side where it’s all about the love as both Matt and he are fond of saying. In the case of this year’s Marine Money week, there is no doubt we got it right. The numbers speak for themselves. This year we went out on a limb denoting the theme as the Comeback or Confidence Returns to Ship Finance. Whether or not that was the case and we believe it is, 1,078 registered guest wanted to hear the answer. This was a new record surpassing 2008’s 1042 guests. Uncertainty + optimism trump a boom.
We relish the awards afternoon. We devote a great deal of energy, although far less than the dealmakers themselves, in choosing the transactions from the many submissions we receive and it is a pleasure to see the winners bask in the recognition they rightfully deserve. It is also educational as the latest structures and ideas are on display for all to see and take advantage of as appropriate. Nigel Thomas and Dan Rodgers of Watson, Farlay & Williams did a masterful job moderating the session which included presentations by Sheldon Goldman, Efthymios Bouloutas of Marfin, Ronny Bjornadal of Nordea, Sean Durkin of NSF, Gerrit Parker of Citi and Craig Fuehrer of Deutsche Bank.
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Taking the Show to Broadway
Navios’ stars Ted Petrone and Mike McClure did have Monday off but spent the rest of the week presenting their company at the Pareto, FBR, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Capital Link conferences. We can now appreciate why you need a management team with a hundred years of experience. Someone has to be minding the store.
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Gleanings from Capital Link
Following the CMA, Capital Link held its 3rd Annual Invest in International Shipping Forum at the Metropolitan Club, which was overflowing for much of the day. There were general presentations, panels as well as company presentations. The following were our main takeaways from this forum.
The container sector has been the hardest hit and so we listened with great interest to that panel led by Ken Hoexter of Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. The panelists included Gerry Wang of Seaspan, Aristides Pittas of Euroseas and Dimitiri Andritsoyiannis of Danaos. The collapse of the market is attributable to simple supply and demand. Overbuilding joined with reduced demand resulting from a slowdown in consumer buying. Mr. Wang believes this is a 12 to 18 month problem with 2012 to 2014 being good years. The lines will survive as they exercise self-help by utilizing alliances, like the airlines. Slot sharing is not as effective as filling a single ship instead of having two partially filled. Mr. Andritsoyiannis espoused the certainty that globalization will continue and that the containership is the only way to efficiently move finished goods. Mr. Pittas reminded everyone that it is a cyclical business and the good market will return. He plays the market more than his fellow panelists. He operates his smaller ships on shorter-term charters taking advantage of good markets and laying up vessels when the market is bad. He currently has three ships in lay-up and is relying on his solid balance sheet to get his company through the downturn.
Not to Be Missed
Despite the difficult environment, a veritable who’s who of the shipping community descended on the Jefferies 5th Annual Shipping, Logistics & Offshore Services Conference on Tuesday and Wednesday.
We must confess that walking in at the uncivilized hour of 8 AM to a sparse crowd and seeing Jefferies Magic Eight Balls gave us pause. Was Hamish making a market statement or was he merely giving investors a new forecasting tool? Our conclusion was probably both.
TMI?
What a week for investors! Starting with CMA’s annual event, continuing with JPMorgan’s Conference and concluding with the Capital Link Forum, it is conceivable that even the most interested observer of the industry may have suffered from information overload. Thankfully, with Good Friday, many of us had the opportunity to recover with a long-weekend.
Despite the early start, the Capital Link Forum played to a full house. There were company presentations galore interspersed with lively and informative panel discussions. With far too much information to distill, here is a highly selected compendium of our outtakes.
CMA’s Irish Feis
CMA’s 2008 Shipping Conference got off to a brilliant start on St. Patrick’s Day. It was not only bigger, 2,000 attendees by latest count, but if possible was one of the best ever in terms of content. Understanding that everyone is Irish on St. Patrick’s Day, the organizers brought Ireland to the conference much to the chagrin of the local pubs, Tiernan’s and Tigin. Bob Kunkel of Seacoast Electronics was serving Guinness and Harps at the Seacoast booth and then brought in the pipes and drums from the Rockland County Emerald Society for entertainment.
It is grossly unfair to gloss over the program, which is dedicated to every part of shipping, but it would also be impossible to describe it all. So instead we will exhibit our prejudice and focus on the market sessions.
The Official Guide To Marine Finance Providers
Shipping Index
