A Good Citizen

We should preface this article by stating irrevocably that rumors of the demise of the high yield bond market are patently false. Fund flows have been strong and in fact during last week there was $3 billion done in 9 deals. It is alive and well. NCL and Genmar were successfully completed but First Ship Lease Trust (“FSL”) did not get done and therein lies an interesting story.
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Less Buzz, but…………More Business

On the outside, this year’s Jefferies Conference was subdued with less buzz than previously. However, it was a marked improvement to last year’s event, which coincided with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Then the shipping markets were still good but all eyes were focused on the Bloomberg screens awaiting developments, while discussions revolved around whether or not to buy gold. Today was different. The economy seems to be improving while the shipping markets struggle. Shipping’s main source of capital, bank debt, is rationed while the equity markets are offering hope. Today was the day for public shipping companies to plead their case to investors. It was all about business.

We know that the presentations are the interlude and that the real action takes place behind the scenes during the one on one meetings as investors and companies engage in speed dating. Yet even in the public venue, we saw a clear dichotomy between the haves and have not’s. The rooms were packed for those companies with large market caps, liquidity and share volatility. For investors these days, slow and steady does not win the race. Nevertheless, the good news was that all the companies had meetings, although some had more than others. But all agreed the meetings were of high quality and now included a new class of investor – the opportunity fund.

As usual, our coverage will focus on points of interest to us. But as it was impossible to cover three tracks, our emphasis, for the most part, was on those unappreciated companies where interest may have waned, whether for lack of coverage or as a consequence of the market sector in which they participate.

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Investing and Investment Banking

The market is depressed. The people are not.
The debt markets exist. But you are looking at a lot less for a short term costing a lot more. A lot of the banks will be properly back into the game by 2010. It will help to have companies based in ship finance exporting countries.

The capital markets exist. The bond market is open at very reasonable rates. The equity markets are open for existing issuers but valuations are poor.

We may have a rebound this year thanks to stimulus plans and fiscal loosening, but the underlying damage is done. Banks will eventually HAVE to account for their losses. The write-downs have to come from somewhere and government debt is hardly the answer. Unless they wait years with the balance sheets impaired.
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The Economy and the Markets

STAY HOPEFUL
Investor sentiment is very often unpredictable and moody, especially today when economic data continues to come in mixed and casts doubts on whether the economic stabilization will be able to materialise into a recovery. And against this uncertain backdrop, it was refreshing to listen to an optimistic voice among the crowd on where the global economy is heading. François Trahan, Senior Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist, ISI Group started off the Wednesday’s session of Marine Money Week on a positive note by reminding the audience that even though consumer deleveraging has already begun and may well continue for the next decade, equities can rally even during such times if the government is able to offset the consumer contraction. He pointed out that the US stimulus package is still very much in its infancy stage considering the fact that the government has only spent 5% or USD 42 billion out of the USD 787 billion.

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Finance for Asian Shipping

The availability of ship financing and alternative sources of capital was the central theme revolving Sea-Asia’s conference yesterday. Referring to a slide that illustrates the impact of banks writedowns on their market capitalisations (see below), Dagfinn Lunde, Member of the Board of Managing Directors of DVB Bank SE, pointed out that even though the traditional ship financing landscape has changed dramatically, there is still money available from banks. He told the crowd that DVB, DnB NOR, Nordea, Nord LB, Fortis and some Greek banks are open to different extents and it is possible to put together club deals between USD 100 million to 120 million today. “If you have the words ‘energy’ or ‘offshore’ in your project, even some US banks are still willing to lend,” he added. Continue Reading

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bath Water or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Fundamentals (with thanks to Stanley Kubrick)

With a full house, Simon Rose began Dahlman Rose’s 1st Annual Global Transportation Conference confessing that despite Wall Street’s having spent years educating investors as to the difference between period and spot business they have largely been ineffective. We disagree with this assessment believing the current market reflects a herd instinct and an avoidance of betting against the tape. The companies presenting at the conference are all clearly differentiated from spot players, with visibility of earnings and cash flows yet their shares have also been pummeled as the BDI continues its decline. Mr. Rose exhorted the crowd to take advantage of this anomaly, take a reality check and not to trade on fear.
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