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Believe the Story or Bet on the Come
Yesterday, Jefferies held its Annual Shipping Conference and, according to Hamish Norton it was a record turnout with over 400 delegates and 40 companies represented. When we were queried about the mood, we hard pressed to provide an answer. There was neither excitement nor was their panic. The closest comparison we could come up with was window shopping. The presentations for the most part were excellent, but the audience appeared detached. Had they seen it all before or was the action taking place behind the scenes in the break outs and one-on-ones? Nonetheless, in line with our thesis, the tanker presentations seemed the most crowded. Genmar, for example, was sold out while the non-U.S. listed companies and service industries garnered the least attention. But then again this was a NY shipping crowd.
The state of the sectors was irrelevant, as all presenters found reason for optimism, well placed or not. Dry has clearly been on the rise, with speakers touting 40% non-deliveries and record scrapping. While on the wet side, consensus suggests 2012 will also be difficult, but the glass is half full with opportunities expected to arise as a result. Lastly, the container ship lessors seem to have blinders on banking on the liners’ liquidity and ability to access capital as losses compound even as they try to get rate increases.
We provide some of our favorite vignettes below.
Yes, There Was Equity Too
China’s inflation and Ireland’s banking crisis triggered this week’s market volatility. Nevertheless, Scorpio Tankers Inc. and Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation (“NMA”) moved ahead with equity follow-on offerings. Scorpio’s registration was for a one-off transaction, whereas Navios’ was a supplement to its recently filed broad shelf registration.
Fair Exchange
Last week, Navios Holdings (“Navios”) and Navios Maritime Partners (“NMP”) announced the re-structuring of certain arrangements between themselves. First, NMP agreed to acquire from Navios the leasehold rights to the M/V Navios Sagittarius, a 2006 Japanese built Panamax. The purchase price, $34.6 million, will be funded from cash on hand. The vessel is currently chartered out at $26,125, net per day until November 2018 and is expected to generate annual EBITDA of approximately $5.8 million. As part of the acquisition of the leasehold, the new owners have a purchase option beginning in December 2009 at an initial price of $25.9 million and the AA+ European Union charter insurance.
De-leveraging
In its 1Q earnings release last week, Navios Maritime Partners (“Navios Partners”) announced that it had amended the terms of its existing $235 million credit facility with Commerzbank in January. The company prepaid $40 million during the first quarter resulting in an approximate $1.5 million in interest expense savings for 2009 and a commensurate reduction in leverage. Throughout 2009, the partnership will additionally have to fund into a pledged account a further $37.5 million. The interest rate on the remaining facility of $195 million now bears a spread of 2.25%, giving an estimated interest rate of 3.98% for 2009 including the margin (versus 4.17% the effective rate in 2008), and no further installments are due until the 1Q 2010.
Gleanings from Capital Link
Following the CMA, Capital Link held its 3rd Annual Invest in International Shipping Forum at the Metropolitan Club, which was overflowing for much of the day. There were general presentations, panels as well as company presentations. The following were our main takeaways from this forum.
The container sector has been the hardest hit and so we listened with great interest to that panel led by Ken Hoexter of Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. The panelists included Gerry Wang of Seaspan, Aristides Pittas of Euroseas and Dimitiri Andritsoyiannis of Danaos. The collapse of the market is attributable to simple supply and demand. Overbuilding joined with reduced demand resulting from a slowdown in consumer buying. Mr. Wang believes this is a 12 to 18 month problem with 2012 to 2014 being good years. The lines will survive as they exercise self-help by utilizing alliances, like the airlines. Slot sharing is not as effective as filling a single ship instead of having two partially filled. Mr. Andritsoyiannis espoused the certainty that globalization will continue and that the containership is the only way to efficiently move finished goods. Mr. Pittas reminded everyone that it is a cyclical business and the good market will return. He plays the market more than his fellow panelists. He operates his smaller ships on shorter-term charters taking advantage of good markets and laying up vessels when the market is bad. He currently has three ships in lay-up and is relying on his solid balance sheet to get his company through the downturn.
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