Asian Liners Get Their Game On

Soaring bunker prices have motivated container liners to re-examine their strategy with a renewed focus on operating efficiency, cost reduction and high fleet utilisation. When market leader Maersk Lines announced its plans to pay USD 1.9 billion for 10 new generation 18,000 TEU vessels, it totally changed the rules of the game and has to some extent prompted other major carriers to look into ordering larger and fuel efficient vessels. Today, there appears to be some form of consensus among liner companies that they would need big ships that are over 10,000 TEUs to ply the Asia Europe trade by 2015 and possibly the Trans-pacific trade by 2020 to stay in the game. At the same time, some liner companies have also expressed their intention to build and own vessels to replace chartered-in vessels, so as to maximise their ability to manage excess capacity. During the shipping downturn, liner companies have realised that the decision to layup or sell vessels becomes much easier if they own the ships themselves.

At Marine Money’s conference in March, Kenneth Cambie, Executive Director and CFO of Orient Overseas International (“OOIL”), told delegates that he believes that container shipping is entering a watershed and it will be clear over the next six to nine months who is in the game and who isn’t. He reckoned that those players with the access to capital will be ordering larger ships and preparing themselves for 2015. The spate of newbuilding orders and the seeming lack of capacity discipline among liner companies have sparked market concerns, but while we leave the arguments and controversies to the industry experts, we agree with Mr. Cambie that the access to capital has become increasingly important to survival and in this aspect, Asian liner companies have the competitive advantage.  Continue Reading

Who Wants to Call the Turn?

We might. While the data may be considered slim and possibly distorted by the $6.75 billion A.P Moller-Maersk transaction, the nine-month 2010 Dealogic shipping data intimates a reversal in the downward trend in syndicated lending which began in 2007. Not only were the number of syndicated deals, volume and new money higher, club deal volume and numbers were down. The latter of course might just reflect deal size, where five of the top fifteen deals were in excess of $1 billion, but we will give the data the benefit of the doubt. In terms of specifics, the number and volume of deals for the 9-months of 2010 was 110 deals totaling $28.4 billion versus the one year earlier total of 90 deals totaling $25.9 billion. The best way to see the trend over time is to look at the data, which we show pictorially below. And, yes, you needn’t remind us that one point does not make a trend.

Continue Reading

More Normal?

Dealogic released its first half tables on Wednesday and they resembled, at least in terms of names, what we more typically expect, particularly in the case of the bookrunner table. Nevertheless, the newcomers from the 1st quarter did retain positions on the leader board. Total deal value grew to $17.5 billion comprised of 50 deals, versus the year earlier $43.1 billion comprised of 165 deals, continuing an expected trend. However on a quarter over quarter comparison, transaction volume declined a substantial 47.3% this year marking an even more worrisome trend.

The top 20 bookrunner table underwent the most change as it filled out from 8 banks in the first quarter to 17 in the first half. SMBC held on to first position increasing its volume by 71% and its market share to 6.5%. Nordea returned jumping to 2nd place with a 3.5% market share. SBI Capital fell to 3rd place with Mizhuo and DnB NOR rounding out the top 5. DnB Nor’s placement is significant and representative of its size and importance as its lending, oft repeated, is strictly limited to run-off. In addition to Nordea, the usual European suspects are back, including KfW, BNP Paribas, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Citi, SG CIB and Calyon. RHB Investment Bank of Malyasia and Axis Bank of India were new entrants and added to the already significant Asian representation.

Continue Reading