The 2008 Global Credit Crisis – Is shipping likely to revert to the 1980’s model?

On November 13th more than one hundred and fifty shipping practitioners, bankers and investors listened to an all-star cast of current and former ship owners, brokers, shippers, maritime arbitrators and maritime attorneys at a CMA luncheon in Stamford, CT.

Moderator Ray Burke of Burke & Parsons, introduced the first speaker, John Bamford, Senior broker at Simpson Spence & Young (USA) who summarized the present situation as: “We are in a state of temporary chaos.” Today’s time charter rates for dry cargo vessels could double and still be 50% of what owners need to make profits again. He suggested that even after the rates start moving it could take 12-18 months longer to bring the supply/demand picture into some semblance of neutrality. On a more hopeful note, he suggested that the fall out from the settlement of October FFA contracts was far less stressful than expected. Still, the physical markets will produce more casualties before things start to improve. On the supply side of the equation, John thought the consensus among brokers was that 30-35% of the fleet on order would be cancelled and some of the new “Greenfield” shipyards would not actually be built.
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CMA’s Irish Feis

CMA’s 2008 Shipping Conference got off to a brilliant start on St. Patrick’s Day. It was not only bigger, 2,000 attendees by latest count, but if possible was one of the best ever in terms of content. Understanding that everyone is Irish on St. Patrick’s Day, the organ­izers brought Ireland to the conference much to the chagrin of the local pubs, Tiernan’s and Tigin. Bob Kunkel of Seacoast Electronics was serving Guinness and Harps at the Seacoast booth and then brought in the pipes and drums from the Rockland County Emerald Society for entertainment.

It is grossly unfair to gloss over the program, which is dedicated to every part of shipping, but it would also be impossible to describe it all. So instead we will exhibit our prejudice and focus on the market sessions.

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