Ship finance is all about maximizing value. As Quintana’s sale moves forward, TUI has announced that Hapag-Lloyd is officially in play, to the satisfaction of minority holder John Fredriksen. Mr. Fredriksen meanwhile, just after accepting the prestigious CMA Commodore Award from Morten Arntzen, announced that his interests had taken a 5.2% stake in Mr. Arntzen’s OSG, with a forward contract for an additional 1,628,300 shares that would bring his stake to 9.6%. With OSG trading at barely above half its net asset value last week, Mr. Fredriksen’s investment focus on shares rather than ships is hardly surprising, and a future combination for the two companies is certainly in the realm of possibility.
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carisk | Categories:
Freshly Minted,
Transaction Report | March 20th, 2008 |
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The Wall Street Journal this week reported that NOL and Hapag-Lloyd parent TUI have retained JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank, respectively, to advise on a possible tie-up that would create one of the world’s largest container shipping enterprises. Such a venture would inevitably involve Singapore state investment company Temasek, which owns 69% of NOL.
Sources in the maritime industry declined comment on the possibility, but reports suggest that potential scenarios include a share swap or a merger between NOL and Hapag-Lloyd directly, with neither Temasek or TUI directly involved in the deal. Analysts pin NOL’s price tag at about $4 billion, a 20% premium to the company’s current market capitalization. They also note that NOL’s trade at a multiple about 20% lower than TUI’s.
Written by:
carisk | Categories:
Freshly Minted,
The Week in Review | February 14th, 2008 |
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In early 2004, it became clear to us that 2005 would be the most active year of consolidation among shipping companies in history. Our belief was underpinned by the fact that shipping companies were generating loads of cash from both operations and the capital markets, the fundamentals for the shipping industry looked set to remain strong and shipyards were operating at or near full capacity. So, armed with loads of cash and good prospects, it is natural to expect that companies would look to reap operational and financial synergies and leverage through growth, and that that growth would come in the form of corporate deals rather than single vessel purchases. And that is exactly what has happened in virtually every sector of the international shipping industry.
The Biggest Gets Bigger
In the latest and most dramatic example of this phenomenon, A.P. Moller-Maersk launched a takeover bid this week for 100% of the shares in Royal P&O Nedlloyd in the largest container shipping M&A deal ever. The takeover bid values P&O at Euro 57 per share, which represents a 41% premium to the then-current price and a 45% premium to the price over the last six months. The bid is also a whopping 130% over the rights issue price on the deal that received Marine Money’s Deal of the Year Award this year and values the company at 1.6x FY05E. Although we expect Royal P&O Nedlloyd shareholders and P&O shareholders, who own 25% of Royal P&O Nedlloyd, to vote in favor the deal, the European Commission may require Maersk to sell off certain routes in order to consummate the deal legally, which could in turn spark a series of smaller M&A deals.
Randy Sesson at Goldman Sachs is representing A.P. Moller on the transaction, JP Morgan is representing Royal P&O Nedlloyd and Citigroup is representing P&O.
Valuation Metrics – AP Moller Set to Get P&O for Free
The transaction is an important one for both AP Moller and the container market in general. As you can see from the graph on the first page, the deal solidifies AP Moller’s position as the world’s largest carrier by taking out the number 3 player and propelling itself to a size that is set to be more than double that of its next largest competitor. On the industry level, the good news is that it shows APM’s bullishness about the outlook for the market, even despite the enormous post-panamax containership order book and some gloomy forecasts by analysts. The loss of P&O from the Grand Alliance will have a negative impact on fellow members NYK, OOCL and Hapag-Lloyd, as Grand Alliance has historically been an effective competitor to Maersk although we can hope that the rationalization of tonnage might ultimately help lessen the blows of looming overcapacity. In a research note, Citigroup container shipping analyst Charles de Trenck said he thinks the deal might raise the ante for other container lines, perhaps suprring NOL to acquire Wan Hai Lines, which has loads of ships on order. De Trenck also surmises that Evergreen could potentially be hurt, so we would expect this transaction to cause a spate of mergers and acquisitions.
Like any truly good M&A deal, this one is beneficial to everyone involved. Shareholders in Royal P&O Nedlloyd get a great valuation for their shares at a time when many think the market might start to weaken. If they want to remain exposed to the industry, they can use their tender proceeds to buy shares in AP Moller. And for AP Moller, the deal is fantastic. With synergies of around $350 million and AP Moller’s P/E valuation of 10x, the company’s share price should increase by the entire purchase price of the new company. Adding in the $400 million of earnings that Royal P&O Nedlloyd is expected to generate in 2005 will bring the number to $4 billion. Put another way, one could make the argument that AP Moller is getting Royal P&O Nedlloyd company for free!
