Bottoming Out?

Over the past week, we have experienced the first market rally from a recession trough. Asian stock markets rallied to some of their highest since mid October as investors take confidence in China’s economic recovery. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index in China rose from 44.8 in March to 51.1 in April, passing the 50-point mark that separates contraction and expansion for the first time in 9 months.

In a market report published last Friday, JP Morgan presented an optimistic view, suggesting that “we are indeed very close to the bottom in global economic activity, and may already be there, with the world economy set to start expanding again in coming months” but acknowledged that there are still many inherent risks since banks and households are still in balance sheet repair mode and a swine flu pandemic cannot be ruled out. Continue Reading