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Syndicated Market Continues on Track
Last Friday, Dealogic released its Bookrunner and MLA Tables for Syndicated Marine Finance Loans for 2011 showing total syndicated loan volume at $68.4 billion up from last year’s $50.1 billion. From the macro perspective the trend remains upward as deal volume and number of transactions grew respectively 26.2% and 19.6% compared to the year earlier. This continues the growth which commenced in 2009. Ignoring the boom in volume in 2007 and 2008, the current volume is on par with the years prior. A further measure of the health of the syndication market is also reflected in the nominal reduction of club deal volume as well as the declining proportion of these deals versus total syndicated volume. This is best seen pictorially in the graphs below.
Dealogic 3Q 2011 – Will the Numbers Catch-up to the Noise?
While anecdotal evidence suggests that the bank market has gone quiescent, the latest quarterly numbers provided by Dealogic continued to show an upward trend, albeit mild, in ship lending on a nine month comparative basis. From the same period last year, the number of deals increased from 147 to 156 with volume rising from $39.0 billion to $45.1 billion. However, this overall result disguises the decline in a straight 3Q 2010 and 3Q 2011 comparison, which shows a reduction in the number of deals, from 67 to 46, and in volume from $25.7 billion to $11.8 billion. The disparate results are clearly evidenced in figures 1 and 2 shown below.
Too Early to Tell
A quarter does not make a year, but it’s off to a good start. Dealogic’s latest league tables arrived last week in the new format implemented in Q4 2010, which provides totals for syndicated marine finance loans and then breaks them down into their constituents, shipping and offshore service loans. This is in line with the Norwegian lending focus, disadvantaging pure shipping banks, although these we would guess are few and far between these days, as diversification is a key risk management tool. Data, for this period, is broken down and provided for all three categories, whereas for the last quarter only offshore was broken out. We have come around to this way of thinking and will focus mainly on the totals rather than the individual sectors, although we will mine the latter for interesting data when it appears.
And the Winner is….the Syndication Market
Last quarter, we went out on a limb, a pretty sturdy one we must confess, and called a turn in the downward trend in the syndication market, based upon a 9.8% increase in volume. Thankfully, we were correct, but the result was unexpected. According to Dealogic, for the twelve months ending in 2010, total syndicated shipping volume was $50.06 billion, an increase of 53.2% over 2009. The ancillary data provided by Dealogic strongly supports this revival, as well as an improving credit environment. As shown below, new money raised nearly doubled from the prior year but what is more significant is that it represented ~76% of new volume whereas in the prior year it was only 59%. The dollar amount of club deals was virtually unchanged, which had the effect of reducing the percentage of club deals as a portion of total volume from 42% in 2009 to approximately 30% in 2010. These trends can be seen in the enclosed graphs.
And the Winner is….the Syndication Market
Last quarter, we went out on a limb, a pretty sturdy one we must confess, and called a turn in the downward trend in the syndication market, based upon a 9.8% increase in volume. Thankfully, we were correct, but the result was unexpected. According to Dealogic, for the twelve months ending in 2010, total syndicated shipping volume was $50.06 billion, an increase of 53.2% over 2009. The ancillary data provided by Dealogic strongly supports this revival, as well as an improving credit environment. As shown below, new money raised nearly doubled from the prior year but what is more significant is that it represented ~76% of new volume whereas in the prior year it was only 59%. The dollar amount of club deals was virtually unchanged, which had the effect of reducing the percentage of club deals as a portion of total volume from 42% in 2009 to approximately 30% in 2010. These trends can be seen in the enclosed graphs.
Who Wants to Call the Turn?
We might. While the data may be considered slim and possibly distorted by the $6.75 billion A.P Moller-Maersk transaction, the nine-month 2010 Dealogic shipping data intimates a reversal in the downward trend in syndicated lending which began in 2007. Not only were the number of syndicated deals, volume and new money higher, club deal volume and numbers were down. The latter of course might just reflect deal size, where five of the top fifteen deals were in excess of $1 billion, but we will give the data the benefit of the doubt. In terms of specifics, the number and volume of deals for the 9-months of 2010 was 110 deals totaling $28.4 billion versus the one year earlier total of 90 deals totaling $25.9 billion. The best way to see the trend over time is to look at the data, which we show pictorially below. And, yes, you needn’t remind us that one point does not make a trend.
In Some Respects, a Return to Normalcy
This week Dealogic published its first half 2010 Bookrunner and MLA Tables for Syndicated Shipping Loans and the news was still dismal but in some respects hopeful. In terms of the big picture, while dollar volumes continued their downward trend, the number of deals in the first half actually increased slightly indicative of, perhaps, less capacity or more focused lending. While the number of club deals increased slightly, from 19 to 23, the deal value declined in proportion to total volume intimating at the revival of the larger syndications. And finally, approximately 90% of the dollar volume was new business rather than refinancings, which is indicative of an improving credit market. Illustrative data are shown graphically herein.
But, for our readers, it is truly the standings that matter as they represent a scorecard of their performance for the first half of the year. While there was shifting in the standings compared to a year ago, the bookrunner table remained relatively stable. Mitsubishi UFJ displaced its fellow Japanese bank, SMBC for the pole position, while DnB NOR moved into second pushing Nordea into the 4th spot. Outsiders from a year ago, Credit Agricole CIB and ABN AMRO found spots in the top ten this time around. In terms of number of deals, DnB and Mizuho had a substantial lead recording 9 and 8 deals respectively far outpacing the remaining bookrunners. Finally, market share is clearly more concentrated at the top compared to the comparable period last year.
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The More Things Change; the More They Stay the Same, Relatively Speaking
Last year, we began our discussion of Dealogic’s 1Q 2009 Syndicated Shipping Loans Tables with the following sentence: “A quarter, particularly the first one, does not make a year, but according to the first quarter Dealogic tables, which we received today, the axis of the ship finance world has tipped eastward.” However, we also should have recalled from our studies of Eastern religions that nothing is permanent and the world is forever changing. In a diminished quarter, in volume terms, the Europeans have come back, but still the number one spot in both the Bookrunner and MLA table has gone to a Japanese bank, Mizuho, followed by perennial leaders DnB NOR and Nordea. Mizuho’s finish is an outstanding accomplishment having moved up from the middle of the pack to pass it’s main local competitors, SMBC and Mitsubishi UFJ. Despite a fair amount of movement in the standings, it is still early in the year and we are not ready to make a call with respect to the earth’s axis. We leave you to peruse the tables and make your own judgments with respect to how the banks finished.
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The World Tilts East
Dealogic issued the full year league tables for 2009 this week and there were few surprises. Volumes were down as one would have expected and there was a certain Asian flavor to the leaders.
Perennial leaders DnB NOR and Nordea were supplanted by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, which took the number one spot in both the Bookrunner and Mandated Lead Arranger tables. This strong showing was based upon their strong relationship with NYK Lines, for whom they were the sole arranger on two deals totaling $2.5 billion and their lead position on the largest deal of the year, AP Moller-Maersk’s $6.5 billion transaction. Don’t cry for the Norwegians. DnB NOR held its own, finishing in 2nd place in both league tables. Their finish was largely determined by transaction size as the number of transactions were comparable. Nordea slipped to 5th in the bookrunner table but finished third behind DnB in the all-important MLA table.
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No Surprises This Quarter Either
On Wednesday, Dealogic released its Bookrunner and MLA Tables for Syndicated Shipping Loans for the 9 months 2009. As expected, total volume and transactions were well down from the prior year. Total deal volume was $25.6 billion in 85 transactions compared to $72.2 billion in 263 transactions over the same period in 2008, confirming what we hear anecdotally. In percentage terms, the nine-month decline was 64.5%, which was less than the quarter over quarter reduction of 73.9% suggesting relief is not yet in sight.
Looking at the changes in the tables from the first half of the year, there was movement in the bookrunner table (figure 1) as Mitsubishi UFJ jumped from 8th place to 1st on the strength of two NYK deals booked at the end of September. This pushed SMBC into 2nd place. In a similar fashion, ING moved from 9th to 3rd on the back of the Bluewater transaction, while BofA Merrill Lynch, which was not even in the top 20 came out of nowhere to finish in 9th place based upon the Tidewater transaction. DnB NOR and Mizuho rounded out the top five finishers. The data is particularly striking in that 9 banks made the top 20 having done only a single transaction.
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