Today, Seaspan Corporation announced the preliminary results of its tender offer which expired yesterday, for the purchase of up to 10 million of its Class A common shares at $15/share. Not surprisingly, given the premium offered, the offer was a huge success with 21.3 million shares tendered. Based upon the terms of the offer, which gives Seaspan the right to increase the number of shares purchased by 2%, the company expects to purchase 11.3 million shares for a cash outlay of $169.5 million. The acquisition of the 11.3 million shares, which represents approximately 16% of the common shares outstanding, will reduce the share count to 58,367,460 shares. As a consequence of the oversubscription, the company expects purchase the shares from each tenderer on a prorated basis, which is estimated to be 53%. Citigroup acted as dealer manager of the tender offer.
During the last days of November, Transocean Ltd re-jiggered its balance sheet through an equity follow-on offering and the issuance of serial bonds. First up was the follow-on offering for 26 million shares with a green shoe of a further 3.9 million shares. The offering was priced, through an accelerated bookbuilding process, at $40.50/share (based upon an exchange rate of CHF 0.9215/USD), a discount of 11.8% from the prior day’s closing price when the offering was announced. Proceeds of the share offering will be used to partially re-finance the company’s acquisition of Aker Drilling ASA, which was originally financed from cash and assumption of Aker’s outstanding debt. The replenished cash will be applied to the expected repurchase of approximately $1.7 billion of its 1.5% Series B Convertible Senior Notes due 2037 that holders may require it to re-purchase in December 2011. Barclays Capital and Credit Suisse acted as joint book-running managers of the offering.
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Contemporaneously, Seaspan commenced a tender offer, led by Citigroup, to purchase up to 10 million of its Class A common shares (approximately 14% of the shares issued and outstanding) at a price of $15/share, a premium of 43.5% to the prior day’s closing price of $10.45. The stock closed the next day at $12.16, an increase of 16.36%. A key condition of the offer, particularly in this period of volatility, is that there is no decrease of more than 10% in the share price or in the general level of market prices for equity securities in the main U.S. stock indices. Clearly the rich premium suggests that the board and management believe the shares to be grossly undervalued. As Gerry Wang commented, this offer “…reflects our confidence in the company’s future prospects and is an efficient way of returning capital to shareholders and increasing long-term shareholder value.” Interestingly all the directors and executive officers concur with his assessment as they have chosen not to participate. On the other hand, the contrarian might argue that the return of capital to the shareholders suggests that opportunities are for the moment scant, as the liners continue to struggle with lower volumes, pricing and overcapacity. Seaspan’s track record, however, belies that concern as they have consistently been able to raise equity and to tap new alternative sources and forms of capital as and when needed. Furthermore, the need for capital is less today due to a competitive shipyard space which can no longer demand large upfront payments deferring capital requirements into the future.
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It is hard to believe anyone would be able to pull off a public share offering in 2009 and as one would expect, there were very few successful listings in Asia. Based on our records, Singapore-based bunkering company Yujin International was the only Asian shipping company that had found success in the IPO market. Interestingly, the company chose to list not in Asia but on the London AIM in a deal organized by nominated advisor and broker Seymour Pierce. The size may be small, but to have a Singapore company listing on a small alternative market in London is a big step. The company listed with 30,000 shares priced at GBP 0.33 each, making its total market capitalization after expenses just shy of GBP 10 million. Continue Reading
Written by:
carisk | Categories:
Asia,
Equity | December 31st, 2009 |
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While we, in shipping, focus daily on the macro picture, primarily the world economy and micro data, such as commodity prices, steel production, oil prices, charter rates, etc, in order to gauge what is happening, it may well be that the health of our industry is, for the moment, more directly correlated to the condition of the banking industry, particularly in light of the supply side issue. While the capital markets have filled a void in the availability of capital in the interim, the question remains as to whether the banks will be back and if so when?
In his excellent report, What We Have Learned from the Large Financial’s Results, Paul Miller of FBR Capital Markets provides insights into the earnings and the credit and financial condition of a select group of the largest U.S. banks including Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs based upon their most recent quarterly reports. We believe the results of these company’s are indicative of the general condition of the banking world. His key takeaways are as follows:
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Written by:
carisk | Categories:
Freshly Minted,
Market Commentary | October 22nd, 2009 |
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FM understands that Genco executives made their presentation to the sales force at Joint Bookrunner Morgan Stanley today in preparation for the start of their roadshow on Monday.
The firm is certainly in the middle of the action these days. Morgan Stanley is also a Joint Bookrunner with Citigroup on the Quintana deal, which is currently on the road, with the New York investor launch and pricing expected next Thursday. However, since Jefferies is the lead manager of the Genco deal, the sales force at Morgan Stanley will not be playing as central a role in that deal as they are in the Quintana deal.
Written by:
carisk | Categories:
Equity,
Freshly Minted | July 7th, 2005 |
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Don’t be misled by the trade press articles and the fact that recent shipping issuers have priced IPOs at the low end of already lowered price ranges; the fact remains that based on our valuations of these companies, issuers are continuing to do U.S. capital markets deals at very attractive valuations. Moreover, we are seeing deals with single hull tankers (Capital), older vessels (TBS) and secondary share sales (Eagle), as well as related party management companies (various). Despite claims to the contrary, the fact remains that the American equity markets are wide open for all kinds of shipping deals. As we see dry cargo rates begin to bounce in recent days, we would not be at all surprised to see this sector regain momentum and enjoy another run.
As one of the 150 investors at Marine Money Week said over coffee, “just because we aren’t paying the retail price that investment banks put on the prospectus doesn’t mean that sellers aren’t getting a premium.” We would concur with that. The message being telegraphed back to the industry from Wall Street and Main Street investors is that the market is open for shipping IPOs even though the heady days of 2x net asset value are gone – at least until rates begin to gather momentum in the coming months.
That said, we should acknowledge the two companies currently engaged in roadshows in the U.S. Capital Maritime & Trading Corp filed an F-1 today for the issuance of 16.67 million shares at $14-$16 per share on the NYSE. We will discuss this deal further next week, when it is expected to price. Cosco has also traveled a long way to bring its roadshow to New York this week.
Eagle Bulk – Don’t Believe What You See
But deals still in the market do little to demonstrate investor appetite. Let’s take Eagle Bulk as our first in-depth example of why the U.S. equity markets are still open, and yes even attractive, to shipowners. The U.S.-based handymax owner Eagle cut the estimated price of its initial public offering to $14-$15 a share from the planned $16-$18 a share, but the company increased the size of the IPO to 14.4 million shares from 13.25 million to make up for the shortfall. The deal priced at $14 per share, which we estimate to be around 1.6x a net asset value that is already high, especially in light of declining charter rates. This is a phenomenal execution that gives start-up Eagle a better valuation than Teekay or OSG. As mentioned above, despite the fact that investors have supposedly rejected issuer’s attempts to sell secondary shares, private equity fund Kelso, which is the financial sponsor behind the Eagle deal, was able to extract about $70 million through fees and debt repayment, which represents almost the fund’s entire investment in Eagle, even while it still retained about half of the equity.
Soft Aftermarket Trading for Eagle
As we saw with Diana Shipping, Eagle has sagged in early aftermarket trading as the stock immediately sank to $13.50. As we understand it, Citigroup’s Smith Barney and UBS’s Paine Webber sold about 65% of the deal to retail investors while the joint bookrunners, which include the names above plus Bear Stearns, sold the balance of the deal to institutional investors. Although this type of sales technique resulted in solid pricing, as it did in the Diana deal, the aftermarket performance prevents “flippers” from immediately selling their stock for a gain. We do not know whether the underwriters exercised the green shoe or are willing to offer support by buying stock to stabilize the pricing. If they have already used their dry power to support the stock, however, we would not be surprised to see continued soft price performance, at least until we run into some sort of market upturn.
Are Dividends Losing Effectiveness?
One question we’ve been asked lately relates to yields. Specifically, how are investors looking at them? The answer, in our view anyway, is that yield can be used to increase valuation among certain fringe buyers of these stocks such as retail, but most experienced institutional investors clearly are looking at net asset value because issuers like Eagle do not have the long-term contracted cash flows required to meet the dividend in question over a sustained period.
In fact, investors that we spoke with at Marine Money Week seem to like growth stories and are discounting the real value of the dividend over the long-term. They are, however, looking at dividends as a way for them to lower their cost basis by receiving their deprecation and earnings in cash. As one Eagle investor said, “Do I think the 16% dividend is a guaranteed? No. But based on the company’s charters, I know I can get more than 30% of my money back over the first two years, meaning that I am really buying this company at closer to net asset value. That is the trade.”
This logic, although tempting, neglects to embrace the potential loss of principal that would result if rates and values return to historically normal levels. In our view, companies that seek to pay dividends and do not have long-term employment to back them up should just be careful to set them at realistic levels that do not stress the company’s liquidity and leave enough cash to take advantage of growth opportunities. It follows from this that Eagle priced at a quite respectable valuation, indicative more that investors have sobered a bit since January than that they have lost interest in dry cargo equity.
Written by:
carisk | Categories:
Equity,
Freshly Minted | June 23rd, 2005 |
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In what we think is a truly defining moment in history of shipping and the capital markets, Eagle Bulk Shipping began its roadshow this week to raise approximately $255 million of equity against a fleet of 11 handymax bulk carriers. We don’t mean to be histrionic here, but we think the valuation of Eagle will strongly influence the dozen other dry bulk deals queued up to come to market.
What we find fascinating about the deal is that Eagle Bulk is using its circa 14% dividend to come to market at approximately 2x net asset value at a time when the comparables are trading closer to 1x net asset value.
According to our calculations, the net asset value of the fleet is about $221 million. We arrive at this figure using our fleet value of $339 million (which includes 3 vessel to be acquired) against liabilities of about $130 million (which includes $97 million on those 3 new vessels and $30 million drawn from the company’s credit facility) and cash of $12 million. Based on the 26 million fully diluted shares (by which we mean the 13.25 million sold to the public and the balance allocated for the green shoe and retained by the sponsor) Eagle Bulk has a net asset value of $221 million, or $8.50/share versus an offering price of $16-$18 per share.
With the serious institutional shipping buyers very savvy in their ability to value shipping companies these days, we can only assume this deal will be sold into the retail market where buyers will be attracted to the yield. Another possibility is that the underwriters have put a very high number of the cover of the prospectus knowing that it will be negotiated down by the investors in today’s choppy IPO market. Eagle Bulk could effectively price its offering more than 50% below the mid price of the range and still capture a premium.
The Opportunity
Aside from the high valuation, small enterprise value and lack of vessel diversification, we think the Eagle Bulk deal provides a well-structured opportunity for investors to participate in the handymax dry cargo market. We say it’s well structured because commercial management is inside and technical management is in the hands of third party V Ships. Moreover, the charters are good, the ships are modern, the company has a large credit facility and the vessels operate in the handymax sector – which enjoys the best supply/demand fundamentals of all the dry cargo markets.
If this deal is successful, the real credit goes to whoever at Eagle (or, perhaps, credit facility provider Royal Bank of Scotland!) decided to put medium term charters on the ships while the market was still strong. Although charter default risk exists in a weakening market, as you can see from our calculations the cash flows generated by these vessels for the next 18 months are presently higher than what could be achieved in the market today and will improve the EBITDA and net asset valuation of the company.
The Challenges – Overcoming Diana
The successful execution of the Eagle Shipping IPO will not be without some challenges, at least if it is sold to institutions. For one thing, the deal is being brought to market by the same pair of bookrunners that brought out the similarly structured Diana Shipping – UBS and Bear Stearns. Citigroup was also added on the cover recently (they did not appear on the original S-1 filing), perhaps to broaden the distribution, and CSFB is the sole co-manager.
Although the high dividend yield structure has created extraordinary premium valuations for tankers companies such as Nordic American Tankers, Knightsbridge Tankers and Arlington Tankers and has clearly inspired replicas in other sectors, the model has not yet successfully translated into dry cargo. Take for example, Diana Shipping, a first rate, high quality company that was the first deal of this sort in the dry bulk space, which has suffered mightily since it began trading in March. It trades at a premium of about 1.3x net asset value and was priced at about 1.4x net asset value before falling in the aftermarket.
Market sources indicate that there were some mistakes made with the execution of Diana, such as who it was sold to, high pricing and a premature exercise of the green shoe, but to be fair to everyone involved the fact that the dry cargo market began falling immediately after the offering was probably the underlying culprit. That said, the unpleasant fact remains that buyers of the Diana IPO have suffered losses – which is why we assume from the high pricing on this deal that it will sold into a new market that puts a greater emphasis on yield than underlying value – retail. Although many within the shipping industry have been astounded by the valuation of companies like Nordic American Tankers, the fact remains that they have delivered very good returns to investors who bought them and held the, over the years.
The Valuation
As is our editorial policy, we will not tell you what we think Eagle Bulk is worth. We will, however, attempt to help you make sense of the information that is presented in the prospectus. As mentioned earlier and outlined in the accompanying figures, the Price/Net Asset Value appears to be high relative to comparables. The key to achieving this high valuation will derive from the healthy dividend that the company is able to pay from free cash flow. As you can see from our calculations, Eagle will generate close to $80 million of EBITDA per year of which about $60 million will be returned to shareholders through a dividend, which will equate to 13.5% yield.
Written by:
carisk | Categories:
Equity,
Freshly Minted | June 9th, 2005 |
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Fresh on the heels of last week’s announcement that AP Moller would tender to acquire Royal P&O Nedlloyd, there were this week reports in the Daily Telegraph this week that the Singapore government investment vehicle, Temasek, which owns a 70% stake in rival Neptune Orient Lines, is speculated to be building a stake in P&O (which owns 25% of Royal P&O Nedlloyd). Although such reports have not been confirmed, analysts at Citigroup think it might make sense from a timing and strategic point of view, but not because Temasek is interested in outbidding the mighty Moller. Here’s their reasoning:
* Temasek owns the second largest port company in the world, Ports of Singapore
* Citi believes P&O Ports would be an attractive addition to the PSA, as it would further dilute the dominance of the transhipment port in Singapore, which currently accounts for over 60% of volumes
* It would also make PSA a more attractive company if Temasek looked to IPO it in the future
* NOL has long been mooted in the press as an attractive merger partner for P&O Nedlloyd (PONL) due to complementary route networks
* The recent announcement by AP Moller that it intends to make a cash offer at EUR 57 for PONL may have forced Temasek’s hand
* Given the strong financial backing of AP Moller, entering into a bidding war for PONL would not appear to be an attractive option; however, acquiring P&O would give Temasek a 25% stake in PONL, which could be enough to defend or discourage a bid from AP Moller
* This would give Temasek the option in the future to initiate a merger between PONL and NOL
* Recent bid premiums have been in the range of 20-40%, which would imply an offer of 340-390p would be needed to secure P&O
* There is no tangible evidence at the present time, but Citi believe this is a plausible scenario
* Citi maintains their Buy/ Medium risk (1M) recommendation for P&O and 315p share price target, rates P&O Nedlloyd Hold/ High Risk, price target EUR 57, and rates AP Moller Sell/ High Risk, target price Dkr40,000
In early 2004, it became clear to us that 2005 would be the most active year of consolidation among shipping companies in history. Our belief was underpinned by the fact that shipping companies were generating loads of cash from both operations and the capital markets, the fundamentals for the shipping industry looked set to remain strong and shipyards were operating at or near full capacity. So, armed with loads of cash and good prospects, it is natural to expect that companies would look to reap operational and financial synergies and leverage through growth, and that that growth would come in the form of corporate deals rather than single vessel purchases. And that is exactly what has happened in virtually every sector of the international shipping industry.
The Biggest Gets Bigger
In the latest and most dramatic example of this phenomenon, A.P. Moller-Maersk launched a takeover bid this week for 100% of the shares in Royal P&O Nedlloyd in the largest container shipping M&A deal ever. The takeover bid values P&O at Euro 57 per share, which represents a 41% premium to the then-current price and a 45% premium to the price over the last six months. The bid is also a whopping 130% over the rights issue price on the deal that received Marine Money’s Deal of the Year Award this year and values the company at 1.6x FY05E. Although we expect Royal P&O Nedlloyd shareholders and P&O shareholders, who own 25% of Royal P&O Nedlloyd, to vote in favor the deal, the European Commission may require Maersk to sell off certain routes in order to consummate the deal legally, which could in turn spark a series of smaller M&A deals.
Randy Sesson at Goldman Sachs is representing A.P. Moller on the transaction, JP Morgan is representing Royal P&O Nedlloyd and Citigroup is representing P&O.
Valuation Metrics – AP Moller Set to Get P&O for Free
The transaction is an important one for both AP Moller and the container market in general. As you can see from the graph on the first page, the deal solidifies AP Moller’s position as the world’s largest carrier by taking out the number 3 player and propelling itself to a size that is set to be more than double that of its next largest competitor. On the industry level, the good news is that it shows APM’s bullishness about the outlook for the market, even despite the enormous post-panamax containership order book and some gloomy forecasts by analysts. The loss of P&O from the Grand Alliance will have a negative impact on fellow members NYK, OOCL and Hapag-Lloyd, as Grand Alliance has historically been an effective competitor to Maersk although we can hope that the rationalization of tonnage might ultimately help lessen the blows of looming overcapacity. In a research note, Citigroup container shipping analyst Charles de Trenck said he thinks the deal might raise the ante for other container lines, perhaps suprring NOL to acquire Wan Hai Lines, which has loads of ships on order. De Trenck also surmises that Evergreen could potentially be hurt, so we would expect this transaction to cause a spate of mergers and acquisitions.
Like any truly good M&A deal, this one is beneficial to everyone involved. Shareholders in Royal P&O Nedlloyd get a great valuation for their shares at a time when many think the market might start to weaken. If they want to remain exposed to the industry, they can use their tender proceeds to buy shares in AP Moller. And for AP Moller, the deal is fantastic. With synergies of around $350 million and AP Moller’s P/E valuation of 10x, the company’s share price should increase by the entire purchase price of the new company. Adding in the $400 million of earnings that Royal P&O Nedlloyd is expected to generate in 2005 will bring the number to $4 billion. Put another way, one could make the argument that AP Moller is getting Royal P&O Nedlloyd company for free!
