Last night our inbox rapidly filled with an onslaught of research from Banc of America Securities’ Michael Pak and James Lee, who initiated the bank’s coverage of the dry bulk shipping sector. In a report entitled “BofA Dockings: Stock Ideas Against a Strong Current,” Messrs Pak and Lee provide a guide for investors to navigate through the sector over the next 12 months and a primer for first time investors in the sector.
They have initiated their coverage of the sector with an overweight rating based upon a favorable risk/reward profile resulting from the recent pullback on near term concerns related to seaborne trade and heightened volatility of freight rates.
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Following quickly on the heels on a multitude of successful follow-on offerings and the Safe Bulker IPO, Britannia Bulk Holdings, Inc. has decided to test the waters here in New York with its IPO. Led by Goldman Sachs and Banc of America Securities together with the support of Dahlman Rose and Oppenheimer, the company is selling 8,333,333 shares at a price range of $17 to $19 and is seeking a listing on the NYSE. The proceeds of this primary offering will be used to de-leverage the balance sheet giving the company access to additional capital resources to grow the company. Management will retain an approximate 70% interest in the company. The terms of the offering are summarized in the Guts of the Deal table contained herein.
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Written by:
carisk | Categories:
Uncategorized | June 12th, 2008 |
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Last week it was dry bulk. This week, all the fuss seems to be revolving around the tanker market. A Wall Street Journal “Money & Investing” section cover story on the popularity of shorting tanker stocks drew some attention. As did a bearish report from R.S. Platou, a much-talked-about, products-focused IPO from Aries Maritime, positive reports form Jefferies and Banc of America and tanker stock coverage initiations from First Albany. So what, exactly, are the arguments going around, and of what should tanker market players and their financiers be aware? It’s still impossible to predict the future, but we can tell you what some of the competing arguments are.
R.S. Platou analyst Erik Andersen drew a lot of attention with his bearish report on shipping, particularly tankers. According to Mr. Andersen, the seasonality justification for low spot rates – which brokers say have dropped into the upper teens for VLCCs on some routes – is badly overblown. He notes that from 1997-2004, the average second quarter rate was about 37.5% lower than the average fourth quarter rate, completely out of order with the drop in rates from $147,000 in the fourth quarter of 2004 to $41,000 so far in the second quarter of 2005. However, this is still above the 8-year average second quarter rate of $35,000 – albeit with higher bunker prices – suggesting that perhaps the $147,000 was more of an anomaly than the $41,000 is a sign of a crash. Still, tanker fleet annualized growth figures of 6-7% compared to a comparable rate of 1% annually over the decade from 1993-2003 are somewhat ominous. Citigroup Smith Barney analyst Charles de Trenck noted how the current weak rates are making the tanker market the first among the shipping sectors to experience the pricing pressures derived from growing capacity. But on the bright side, Mr. Andersen did write that he does not believe tanker markets will weaken so much as to create a weak year for owners.
Analysts Magnus Fyhr and Douglas Mavrinac at Jefferies & Company have a much different take on the current market situation. They said in a report issued to reiterate their buy rating on Ship Finance International that they expect tanker demand to be firm on increasing OPEC production. Importantly, the analysts believe that incremental fleet growth of 21 MMdwt scheduled through the end of the year is likely to be absorbed by increased tanker demand.
Evincing similarly positive sentiments, analysts Daniel Barcelo, Philippe Lanier and Pierre Sargeant of Banc of America Securities issued a report on oil tankers optimistically titled “Hold On for the Summer Heat.” They note that a 5% tanker stock pullback over the past two weeks has been related more to Arabian Gulf VLCC market conditions than to the tanker industry as a whole, much of which has remained fairly strong. Additionally, they point out that the 450 vessel global VLCC fleet has grown by only two vessels so far in 2005, implying that softened rates could not be explained by supply buildup, but rather are a product of a reduction in Arabian Gulf export volume and a temporary buildup of available tonnage in the gulf. Analyst Craig Irwin of First Albany appears to agree, having this week initiated coverage on General Maritime, OMI and Arlington Tankers with a Buy rating. And a group of Asian investors that market sources say recently put their money into a very expensive $140 million VLCC newbuilding have put their money where their mouth is when it comes to predicting a strong VLCC market for years to come.
Much of Wall Street, however, seems to have sided with R.S. Platou on the more bearish side of the debate, as a widely disseminated article titled “Shorts Expect Tankers to Take On More Water” strongly suggests. Teekay, OMI, Knightsbridge and General Maritime are all being subjected to this phenomenon, with Frontline leading the pack. Investors are brazenly betting that tanker stocks will keep falling. Whether or not this will happen is hard to tell, though the practice certainly is not encouraging for those hoping to see their tanker investments appreciate.
Daniel Barcelo, Philippe Lanier and Pierre Sargeant of Banc of America Securities issued a different opinion on OSG late last week, raising the company’s rating to Buy on the assertion that there are no grounds for OSG to be trading at a discount to peers on both EV/EBIDA and Price/NAV. We are inclined to agree.
While to some this may appear overly optimistic, other analysis seems to support their ideas. Dan Barcelo, Pierre Sargeant and Philippe Lanier of Banc of America Securities, in an energy sector report, note that they expect sector momentum to remain positive as oil prices are suggested to average $47 in 2005. Oil production and demand remaining healthy are unequivocally good for the tanker sector, while they are also a positive indicator regarding global economic growth.
Banc of America Securities initiated widespread coverage on the tanker sector yesterday. Companies covered include General Maritime, Teekay, Frontline and OSG – all with a Neutral rating – and Ship Finance International and OMI Corp., with a Buy rating.
Written by:
carisk | Categories:
Freshly Minted,
Market Commentary | March 24th, 2005 |
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