A Wisp of Spring

While sitting home in the midst of a blizzard and with the knowledge that the omniscient Punxatawny Phil announced on Ground Hog Day that we still have 6 more weeks of winter, we know, nonetheless, that spring will inevitably come. Yesterday we attended the morning session of the Hellenic/Norwegian-American Chambers of Commerce 16th Annual Joint Shipping Conference and we felt similarly that the winter of ship finance may also break. While the tone wasn’t exactly upbeat, there certainly were no dirges being sung and it, in fact, appears by their comments that the bankers may be ready and able to return from their year plus long sabbatical. But as Nikolai Nachamkin of DnB and the conference co-chairman would remind me, I am getting off topic.
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Full House in Athens – Part 2

By Kevin Oates

…in the longer term shipping should correct but quality, transparency and financial strength are key to survival.

Despite the tough market and the general lack of ship finance, Marine Money’s Greek Ship Finance Forum again filled the seats in Athens.  With 310 delegates and speakers and some 40 more for the TEN Ltd lunch, there was plenty gossip and exchange of views at the 11th Annual conference held on the 8th of October 2009.

The event had started with a speaker’s dinner the previous night co-hosted by Navios Maritime Holdings and was to end in the early hours of the following morning at the Capital Party co-hosted by Capital Product Partners LP at a well-known Athens nightclub.  Even if the market is tough, we still know how to enjoy ourselves.

Back at the conference, our day began with Guy Verberne, a leading economist at Fortis Bank (Nederland) telling us that the economic recovery has come and it may well be sustainable.  China, he says, has plenty foreign reserves to prolong it’s stimulus package for as long as it needs and he sees no meaningful cutbacks from the stimulus packages of western governments, at least through 2010.  A risk is a double dip in 2011 if we get too bogged down in debt.
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Award Affirmed

As we prepared to make the formal presentation of Dealmaker of the Year to Angeliki Frangou and her Navios team at Marine Money Week, we learned that she concluded yet another innovative deal and one that is certainly representative of the times in which we find ourselves. In a sense, she married an opportunity to the solution of the larger financial issue facing our industry.

Last Monday, Navios announced the acquisition of four newbuilding Capesize vessels currently under construction at a South Korean shipyard. Three of the vessels were purchased from companies controlled by Commerzbank AG. The seller of the 4th was not disclosed.

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Investing and Investment Banking

The market is depressed. The people are not.
The debt markets exist. But you are looking at a lot less for a short term costing a lot more. A lot of the banks will be properly back into the game by 2010. It will help to have companies based in ship finance exporting countries.

The capital markets exist. The bond market is open at very reasonable rates. The equity markets are open for existing issuers but valuations are poor.

We may have a rebound this year thanks to stimulus plans and fiscal loosening, but the underlying damage is done. Banks will eventually HAVE to account for their losses. The write-downs have to come from somewhere and government debt is hardly the answer. Unless they wait years with the balance sheets impaired.
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Not to Be Missed

Despite the difficult environment, a veritable who’s who of the shipping community descended on the Jefferies 5th Annual Shipping, Logistics & Offshore Services Conference on Tuesday and Wednesday.

We must confess that walking in at the uncivilized hour of 8 AM to a sparse crowd and seeing Jefferies Magic Eight Balls gave us pause. Was Hamish making a market statement or was he merely giving investors a new forecasting tool? Our conclusion was probably both.

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Navios Comes Full Circle

Less than 10 days after making its first public F-1 filing, SPAC Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation successfully priced its 22,000,000 unit IPO at $10.00/unit to raise gross proceeds of $220 million. The deal timetable was ultimately compressed and the deal well oversubscribed by a mix of SPAC investors, shipping fundamental investors, and those who have been following Navios. Units had traded up a half a percent at close today to $10.05 in pleasant contrast to the Dow’s 358 point fall.

The successful issue of the SPAC in itself is evidence of an improved market, and good news for First Class Navigation, which is understood to be currently in the market with a $125 million SPAC. However there is clearly more to it than that. More and more it’s been the “who” mattering as much as the “what” in shipping deals, and nowhere is this more important than a SPAC – where the “who” or the “jockey” is exactly the part of the deal investors bet on. Angeliki Frangou’s success with the International Shipping Enterprises SPAC and its subsequent Navios acquisition and her sharpened roadshow skills no doubt were major forces behind the deal’s success, particularly as both SPAC and shipping investors are familiar with her track record and her story.

As to the specifics of the deal, Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp (“NMAC”) is seeking to acquire one or more assets or operating businesses in the marine transportation and logistics industry, with a primary focus on businesses outside the dry bulk sector. Though some speculation has circulated regarding the use of NMAC as a way to spin out Navios’ logistics operations, the conflicts inherent between the two public companies are too deep to make such a deal attractive or likely, and it should be interesting to see what kind of target with which NMAC emerges.

JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are acting as joint bookrunning managers on the offering, while S. Goldman Advisors is also participating. A 3,300,000-unit over-allotment option remains outstanding. Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Glovsky and Popeo and Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson are acting as counsel to the underwriters while Reeder & Simpson is acting as counsel for the issuer.

Each unit in the offering consists of one common share and one warrant to purchase a common share at a price of $7.00. Sponsor Navios Maritime Holdings committed to purchase 7,600,000 warrants at $1.00 each simultaneous with the closing of the offering, amounting to a $7.6 million investment or about 3% of the company’s value. The sponsor is also making a $500,000 loan and will hold a 20% stake in NMAC. Backing up the deal’s credibility, NMH and NMAC CEO Angeliki Frangou entered into an agreement with JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank to place limit orders for up to $30 million of NMAC common stock to purchase any shares of our common stock offered for sale (and not purchased by another investor) at or below a price equal to the per-share amount held in our trust account as reported in our initial preliminary proxy statement filed with the SEC relating to the company’s initial business combination, until the earlier of (1) the expiration of the buyback period or (2) the date such purchases reach $30 million in total. She also agreed to vote all such shares in favor of NMAC’s initial business combination.

For a SPAC, of course, the IPO is just the beginning. Much like a private equity firm that has a new fund ready to invest, the real excitement should lie in the months (or year) ahead.

Transaction Report

As the conference season officially ends and the summer officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere, the deal market shows no signs of going on vacation. Angeliki Frangou successfully priced her second shipping SPAC in the US, the Oslo high yield market has picked up some of its lost momentum, and a certain Mr. Fredriksen continues to make sure the shipping deal market never gets too boring.